Public-data project · live
US Election Intelligence
A nonpartisan polling and scenario analysis tool for the 2026 US Senate, House and governor races and past presidential elections, built entirely on public data. It shows what the polls say and what the seat arithmetic would be under assumptions you choose. It does not forecast winners or give probabilities of victory.
Polls · scenarios · seat arithmetic
Illustration only, not real polling data.
Live application
Try it below
The full app runs inside this page. If it shows a wake-up button, click it — the app sleeps when nobody has used it for a while and takes about 30 seconds to start.
Independent, nonpartisan project by VisiVault Analytics Ltd. Every scenario is a hypothetical calculation, not a prediction. Poll figures come from the cited public sources; verify important numbers there.
What it does
Polling analysis and conditional scenarios
- Weighted polling averages with intervals, moving averages, LOWESS and a Bayesian (Kalman) trend
- Pollster house effects and likely-voter vs registered-voter comparisons
- Scenario simulator: national, regional and state shifts, undecided split, turnout and polling-error assumptions
- Electoral map with Maine and Nebraska district allocation and tipping-point analysis
- Historical polling error from archived data, and backtests that reproduce certified 2016–2024 electoral votes
- Data-quality checks, snapshot comparisons and downloadable PDF, Excel and CSV reports
Data: MIT Election Data + Science Lab, the FiveThirtyEight data archive, Wikipedia polling tables (CC BY-SA 4.0), OpenFEC and US Census CVAP. Data are refreshed automatically once a day. Code is open source under the MIT licence.
Need analysis like this for your own data?
VaultData builds dashboards, models and scenario tools for growing organisations. Book a call to talk through your data.